Probability Shop
Prediction market
Browse open markets and buy YES or NO positions on real-world outcomes using PLS. Markets are created on topics like crypto prices, sport, politics, and macroeconomic events. Your YES/NO positions can also be sold while the market is open.
AMM-priced odds
Positions are priced by a constant-product AMM — the more people buy YES, the pricier YES becomes and the cheaper NO gets, reflecting the crowd's current probability estimate.
Winner takes the pot
When a market resolves, the winning side shares the full pot proportionally to their positions.
Smaug fee discount
Holding and staking Smaug gives a fee discount on all trades, shared with the Outcome Exchange via SmaugStaking.